摘要： 运用四个方程组成的联立方程组模型研究了我国林业经济增长、林业生态安全与林产品贸易的关系，林业生态指标采用林业生物灾害面积与造林面积等与生命生态直接相关的指标。研究结果认为林业生物灾害与林业产值之间出现正U 关系，而造林面积与林业产值之间呈现倒U 型关系，林产品贸易延缓了造林面积的降低，在一定程度上有保护生态的作用，而同时林产品贸易也带来了部分林业生物灾害。我国林产品出口是林产品大量进口的原因，林产品进口对林业经济增长的确有促进作用。同时林产品进口和林业产值之间也呈现倒U 型关系。

关键词：林业经济；林产品贸易；林业生态；U 型关系；林业安全

Abstract：We study the relationship between forest products trade，forest ecology and forest industry growth，by four-equation simultaneous equations model，among which the forest ecology including the plantation area and the forest biological disaster.The conclusion is forestry，biological disaster and forestry growth shows the up-U form curves，but the inverted U form between forest output and the plantation area，and forestry trade delay the planting area to reduce to a certain extent is of ecological protection，while forest products trade has also brought a certain forest biological disasters. Driven by exports of forest products，we import large quantities of forest products，both forestry imports and exports can promote economic growth，however，there is also an inverted U relationships between output value of forestry and the products import，which means that China will face in the future to solve their problem of more serious insufficient supply of forest products. Finally，we put forward some suggestions.

Key words：Agricultural economy；Forest product Trade；Forestry ecological；U Curve；Forestry safe